Ukraine’s pro-Europe protests are drawing out into their seventh week with little hope for a breakthrough in sight. President Viktor Yanukovych remains in power and economic collapse has been avoided, thanks to €15 billion in aid from Russia.
While the fickle media may have abandoned any hope of a quick and spectacular media-friendly revolution, recent events will have long-lasting effects on the country. The “Eurolution,” as the huge protests across Ukraine over the past weeks have become known, have marked the lives of hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians and acted as a catalyst for a dynamic grassroots movement that will have a profound effect on Ukrainian democracy and the future orientation of a country historically torn between East and West.
Whether or not opposition organizers will be able to regain the momentum of pre-holiday protests is doubtful. Only several hundred dedicated protesters remain huddled in tents or guarding hastily-constructed barricades. Nearby, city hall and various other municipal buildings remain occupied by protesters and are abuzz with volunteers signing up for various duties and even providing free medical care. Maidan itself is strewn with simple but festive Christmas decorations, perhaps in an attempt to convince onlookers, or even themselves, that the lull is only seasonal.
Even if the protest movement dies a slow death during the cold weeks of January, the psychological impact of the protests on Ukrainians is indelible. The explosive energy and creativity of a truly grassroots movement was a refreshing change for Ukrainian politics that took both the government and the opposition by surprise.
If the protests have failed to bring about immediate change thus far, it is not because of a lack of energy or will power, but a divided opposition and a difficult situation that left the country with little margin of maneuver. Divided between Batkivshchyna, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s party, UDAR, led by boxing champion Vitaliy Klitschko and the ultranationalist Svoboda party, no opposition party could provide a credible path forward through which the outburst of popular unrest could be channeled. Meanwhile, Russian aggression and European inaction lent at least some credibility to Yanukovych’s warnings that a blind rush towards Europe would cost Ukraine too much.
Russia has managed to keep the Ukraine’s future in limbo for the moment by exploiting the country’s dire economic situation. In early December, the government was faced with an $18 billion shortfall to cover debt repayments and gas deliveries for the coming year. If the Yanukovych had snubbed Russia, its best hope for quick cash would be dashed and politically sensitive gas prices would have risen even further.
Both the Kremlin and the Ukrainian government know, however, that Europe has won the tug-of-war for Ukrainians’ hearts. Europe may not be perfect but it represents everything they aspire to for their own country. Russia may offer easy money, but Europe offers a chance for Ukraine to make something of itself.
The world must continue to support Ukraine in its European aspirations. While the government ultimately kicked the can down the road in exchange for financial support from Russia, the people of Ukraine have resolutely demonstrated their desire for a European Ukraine free of Russian cronyism and corruption. Sanctions or diplomatic cold-shouldering would ultimately only hurt regular Ukrainians.
Support must start with recognizing that the West will have to continue to work with Viktor Yanukovych. Western capitals, of course, must remain firm in their demands that Ukrainian authorities respect the rights and dignity of protestors, but relations can ill afford to remain on the backburner until 2015, when the next presidential elections will take place.
Finally, cooperation should be focused on small, but concrete goals, whether bringing Ukrainian factories up to European standards, increasing transparency in the justice system or liberalizing visa-free travel. Small things count in the long run and, whenever the debate turns to broader geopolitics, the situation is likely to descend into a zero-sum game between Brussels and Moscow.
Things may not move quickly in Ukraine, but the wheels of change are turning. Political leaders must continue to nudge the country in the right direction and provide support and incentives for Ukraine. Euromaidan has shown that this is not simply a question of geopolitics, but a grassroots thirst for change.